In a 2003 Comparison of the Temperaments of Russian and U.s. Babies, Russian Infants Were
CIA Manager Burns subsequently went to Moscow to try and intimidate Putin into revoking troop buildup on Ukrainian edge
[Russell Bentley, a Texan and writer of this commodity, served in the Donbass army. His motivation was to fight fascism; he envisioned himself as an heir to members of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade who volunteered to fight fascism in Spain during the Spanish Ceremonious War.
In function one, Bentley's provides an cess of the electric current tensions in the Ukraine and the character of the government. Ranked as one of the most decadent governments in the earth, it is a monstrous creation of the U.S. empire guilty of big-scale war crimes.
In function two, Bentley discusses three potential military machine options for Russia. CAM's position on this disharmonize is to endorse the Minsk protocol, which focuses on a diplomatic settlement that offers the Eastern Ukrainian provinces considerable autonomy and could aid defuse tensions in the region.
The tertiary military option discussed by Bentley—the Kyiv programme which would entail a Russian march on Kyiv—has three main dangers: a) Ukrainian rightists and nationalists would mobilize against the Russians and pro-Russian forces, prompting a prolonged and devastating war that could be a quagmire for Russia (rather than a cakewalk, equally Bentley suggests); b) a Russian invasion would potentially ignite Earth War III by drawing in the U.S. and NATO; and c) it could fifty-fifty lead to the advent of nuclear war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be conscious of these dangers and intent on restraining hawkish elements inside the Russian military—a good matter. At the same time, he has made information technology clear that Russian federation volition defend its interests and not be pushed around.—Editors]
Part 1
On October 18th, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin Three met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to affirm U.S. support for Ukraine'southward war confronting its eastern provinces.
Since the beginning of the conflict in 2014, the United States has provided more than $2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, including $275 million in armed forces aid that has been announced in the last ten months nether President Joe Biden, a staunch champion of the war from its inception.
In early on November, President Biden dispatched CIA Director William F. Burns to Moscow to warn the Kremlin about its troop buildup on the Ukraine border and to try and forcefulness it to back off. Secretary of State Antony Blinken followed up this past calendar week by threatening Russia further in a joint press conference in Washington with the Ukrainian Strange Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Ukraine, however, started the war post-obit the February 2014 U.S. backed coup and carried out sustained war crimes.
These crimes include: a) the recent kidnapping and torture of a Russian ceasefire monitor in Lugansk; b) a contempo attack on Staromaryevka, a settlement of 180 civilians in the de-militarized "Grey Zone," which included the kidnapping of eight more unarmed civilians (who were also Russian citizens) by neo-Nazi terrorists; and c) the employ of a Turkish Bayraktar assail drone against Donbass defense forces.
All this is in addition to the repeated shelling of civilian areas and infrastructure along with a hardening of state of war rhetoric past the Kyiv government—with U.Southward. backing.
Readying for War
The chief hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine lies with the Minsk peace accords—which includes a provision that would permit for considerable autonomy for the eastern provinces. Predictably, the U.S. and Ukraine accept shown trivial interest in adhering to the Minsk accords.
A no-fly zone is currently being enforced by Russia in the airspace over the Donbass Democracy. Russia cannot recognize the Donetsk Republic because it would invite further U.Southward. sanctions and efforts at political isolation; the Donetsk Republic is considered to exist a renegade and the U.S. wants Russian federation to stay out of the war.
All military units of the DPR are currently on full combat alarm. News reports and videos have appeared with Russian armor, including "hundreds" of heavy combat vehicles, and lxxx,000 to 90,000 troops, moving toward the Ukrainian border from the Bryansk, Voronezh and Rostov military districts. They are stationed at Novy Yerkovich—a iv-hour (250 km) drive to Kyiv—and along the border near Kharkov, which lies a scant 30 kilometers from Russian federation's edge.
The troop buildup indicates that Russian federation is prepared to defend the Donbass region, which consists of nearly a million Russian citizens, and to potentially get further and liberate the role of Ukraine populated primarily by ethnic and Russian-speaking Russians.
The U.S./European union/NATO and Ukraine have all been pretending since 2014 that "Russian federation invaded Ukraine"—which it never did, though Ukrainian provocations make it more likely that it soon will.
The war in Ukraine is not a Ukrainian ceremonious war, nor is it a war between Russians and Ukrainians.
It is a state of war by resurgent international neo-Nazism, led by the U.s. against a people fighting for their autonomy backed by a reinvigorated Great Power, Russia, which wants to aggrandize its regional influence and counteract a legitimate security threat on its border.
World Flash Signal
The fight in Donbass is i of the major globe's flash points alongside Syria and Taiwan—where U.South. provocations threaten a major war with China.
If the West forces a military confrontation with Russia in Ukraine, it tin be sure information technology will face 1 with Cathay over Taiwan simultaneously, neither of which information technology has whatsoever chance of winning. The Russians and Chinese accept forged a partnership confronting Western, primarily U.S. aggression in the political, economic, and military spheres.
In Syria, the Turks (a NATO member) have in recent days directly threatened Russian military installations and troops; Should they actually conduct out attacks on Russians in Syria, Russia has made articulate it will fire back. Turkish troops are at present besides on the ground in Ukraine, involved in combat operations against Donbass Defense Forces. This too, is a major and recent escalation.
Russia Prepares Its Saddle
But it is in Donbass that the situation is the nigh incendiary. In response to contempo Ukrainian provocations and acts of terrorism, Russia is over again sending a military machine task force to its border with Ukraine, as information technology did in the bound of this yr, which stopped the planned U.S./Ukrainian offensive in its tracks.
After the offensive was scrubbed and the state of affairs de-escalated, the Russian troops withdrew from the border, but now once again have returned. This time, indications are that the Russian formations are preparing to, at minimum, come into Donbass every bit peacekeepers, and mayhap go as far equally Kharkov and Odessa as Liberators. Maybe even to Kyiv.
As the recent words of Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev and others accept made clear, the Russians have now decided that the time for talking is over. At that place is an old saying about Russians that applies perfectly well to the electric current situation—"The Russians are wearisome to saddle their horses, but when they practise, they ride very, very fast."
Those horses take now been saddled.
Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
If the Russians were to deepen their interest in the Ukraine, they would not be doing anything the U.S. and NATO accept not done themselves on more i occasion.
Russia not only has therightto protect its citizens, information technology has the responsibility to exercise and then, under international law.
The "R2P" or "Responsibility to Protect" concept is based on three "pillars" –
Colonnade I—Each individual land has the responsibility to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity.
Pillar Two—"States pledge to assist each other in their protection responsibilities."
Pillar Three—If any land is "plain failing" in its protection responsibilities, so states should take commonage action to protect the population" in a "timely and decisive response."
The UN Security Quango has recognized and reaffirmed its delivery to the R2P in more than 80 resolutions. R2P as such has the force of international law.
The flip side of R2P is that information technology has been used as an excuse by the well-nigh powerful countries for international war crimes and has resulted in the trampling of state sovereignty.
One of the requirements of R2P is a Un Security Council resolution approving its implementation. Though this volition never happen in the case of Ukraine, there can be no uncertainty that Ukraine is, in fact, guilty of all the crimes that R2P was created to prevent, including a) war crimes, b) indigenous cleansing, and c) crimes against humanity, all of which have been, and proceed to be, committed by the Kyiv government and its military on a daily footing.
Russian intervention as such could be justified under the R2P doctrine–though it is unlikely any NATO countries would acknowledge this.
Who Volition End the Crimes Against Humanity?
The list of Kyiv's war crimes under international law include: a) deprival of water to near 2.v one thousand thousand civilians in Crimea, b) the intentional targeting of civilians, journalists and medical personnel by artillery and snipers, c) random terror attacks on civilian areas, d) kidnapping, due east) rape, f) torture and g) murder.
The Russians have over 2,000 specific war crimes cases open up confronting the Kyiv regime and its proxies, and more are beingness opened daily. Even the The states has opened war crimes investigations into at least seven U.Due south. citizens who fought on the Kyiv side in the state of war.
These investigations into kidnapping, torture, rape, and murder are based on eyewitness, and video and forensic evidence. It will exist the first time the U.S. has prosecuted anyone under the State of war Crimes Act since its passage into law in 1996, a quarter century ago.
The Ukrainian military machine has as of this writing massacred at least ten,000 indigenous Russian civilians. Some were killed in house-to-firm searches of civilian homes by paramilitary units wearing Nazi insignia on their uniforms. The Gestapo-like forces were searching for DPR and Russian passports and kidnapped those who had them.
The Russians cannot just stand by and allow this to happen. And neither should Americans.
Western intellectuals accept been quick to invoke R2P to support the bombing of Libya and Syria and a host of other Middle East countries every bit a cover for U.Southward. aggression. But how many will invoke the same doctrine when it tin can be applied to actually salvage people from large-calibration indigenous cleansing and crimes against humanity—if Russia is the 1 doing the saving? Probable none.
Part ii: Three Options for Russia
The way I see it, Russia currently has three main options:
i) The Donbass Plan—The Russian Regular army can roll into Donbass as peacekeepers, along the electric current contact line from Due north of Lugansk to Mariupol, after publicly announcing it to the world a few hours ahead of time, in gild to warn the Ukrainian military against resistance, and to explain and justify its humanitarian intervention to the "international community." They would announce that they come in peace to stop the war crimes and the war, but that any military resistance from any source will be instantly eliminated, with the warning, "If yous shoot at us, you die."
This ultimatum would be non-negotiable and backed upwardly by Russia's full military power, including air and missile forces, and applied not only to Ukrainian military machine units, only to U.S. and NATO troops in Ukraine and U.S. and NATO ships in the Blackness Bounding main, too as anywhere else. It can and should as well include a reminder of Putin'southward previous quote that"Russia volition respond to any attack past the destruction not but of the source of the assail, but also the source of the orders for the set on."
This selection would finish all terrorist attacks against Donbass, permanently and completely, and would hopefully requite time for a diplomatic solution based on new political realities to exist found. It would also not entail the taking of whatsoever territory under Ukraine command, simply that which has long been alleged under "Russian occupation".
Once it is seen that the Russians reallyare coming, and they reallypractice mean business, it is unlikely that the Americans, NATO, or the Ukrainians will fire a shot. This is the least confrontational and least risky approach, as it could be achieved in a matter of 24 hours, with minimal mortality.
This may seem to be a businesslike solution, merely it has the least risk of finding a political compromise or permanent solution, in either the short or long terms. And while it would terminate state of war crimes and protect Russian citizens, it would fail to resolve the overriding geopolitical problems Russia faces in Ukraine—argumentative war criminals on Russian federation's borders, the critical Crimean water security issue, strange enemies in control of a neighboring country, etc. One advantage to this plan, all the same, is that could be used as a first phase of the Novorussia Program.
2) The second choice is The Novorussia Plan. Under this plan, the Russians tin liberate the expanse known every bit Novorussia, virtually one third of electric current Ukraine, with majority indigenous Russian populations, running along a line from Kharkov to Odessa (inclusive). This not only protects the vast bulk of ethnic Russians (not only those in Donbass) from Ukrainian depredations, information technology solves the critical humanitarian water crunch in Crimea, and cuts Ukraine completely off from the Black Sea. This will also eviscerate all that is left of the Ukrainian economy and begin the procedure of the dismantling of Ukraine along ethnic lines while eliminating it as a country and every bit a threat to Russia in one case and for all.
Information technology will also serve as an case to the world of the new political reality that Russia reserves the right to defend itself, unilaterally, if need exist, and that the nation with the most powerful military in the globe as well has the political volition to apply it, if information technology has no other choice and if it is forced to defend itself. This scenario has the best hope of long-term stability for the region, and fifty-fifty the possibility of a futurity re-integration of some parts of central Ukraine with Novorussia.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of war criminals would probably escape to the West, at least for a while.
three) The third plan, the Kyiv Programme, would be to go to Kyiv, which may or may not involve engaging in a major war. In the best case scenario for Russia, the U.S. and NATO would desert Ukraine in the face of a real fight and leave them on their own. Even if Ukraine did not capitulate in the start few hours, any actual conflict could be finished in a few days, and the process of de-Nazification and war crime trials could begin. In an alternative scenario, the U.Due south. and NATO would launch air strikes and the war could devolve into a quagmire for Russia, with the hazard of nuclear war intensifying.
My belief is that the outcome of the open combat phase of the war would be along the lines of the Start Iraq War, (with 80% – 90% of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering without firing a shot) but the subsequent "occupation" would really be a real liberation. With the removal of neo-Nazis and decadent oligarchs from positions of power, and the improvement of life quality and life chances for a vast bulk of the population, most Ukrainians (with the exception of the rabid fascists in Galicia or Poland) will see the Russian Ground forces equally their grandparents saw the Red Army, as heroes and liberators from foreign occupation—which is exactly what they would be.
This may be the least viable and least attractive of the three scenarios, but information technology is an option, and it would have the required effect of stopping the state of war crimes confronting Russian citizens and eliminating Ukraine every bit an existential threat right on Russian federation's doorstep. It would likewise have the do good of the capture a large percentage of war criminals (Ukrainian and otherwise) besides as documents and evidence that might exist of corking involvement to history, Russia and the globe—an option worthy of serious consideration.
Of all three of these plans, the second, the Novorussia Programme has the most do good at the to the lowest degree cost. Only going to the contact line in Donbass is not sufficient to resolve the festering Ukrainian problem, and going all the way to Kyiv may well price more than than information technology is worth. The Novorussia Plan resolves all critical issues at an acceptable cost, and can be implemented, if need be, as a second phase of the Donbass Program.
With the Voronezh troops coming in through (or around) Kharkov, Airborne and amphibious troops landing in (or around) Odessa, the Rostov Ground forces coming up through Donbass, and the Crimean Ground forces and Black Bounding main Fleet working along the declension, along with the Bryansk Army waiting in reserve and ready to have Kyiv if required, the 700 Km Front, running from Kharkov to Odessa could be formed and held in a thing of days.
Once Russian fuel and human being aid get-go to period to liberated Novorussia, grateful citizens will not only not oppose Russian "occupation," they will back up information technology every bit genuine liberation, and even be ready to defend information technology themselves from the cold and hungry Ukrainians who will exist begging to be allowed to immigrate to Novorussia.
Incorrigible Nazis and war criminals will be rounded up, tried, and sentenced to work battalions in Donbass, to repair every single thing destroyed or damaged in the state of war, including the monument at Saur Mogila and all monuments to the Red Army Liberators in the newly liberated lands of Novorussia. The majority of Russian soldiers volition rapidly be costless to return to Russian federation, and get out the administration and protection of the newly liberated lands to their inhabitants.
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Russians visiting Saur Mogila memorial to crimson Ground forces soldiers who liberated Donetsk from the Nazis in World War I. [Source: inthefray.org] -
Separatist flags wing over ruins. [Source: inthefray.org]
Vladimir Putin has more than one time recounted a lesson that he learned equally a youth on the tough streets of St. petersburg."If the fight is inevitable, it is best to strike kickoff."
If war indeed breaks out, the main responsibleness would rest with the U.Due south. which triggered the current mess through its sponsorship of the February 2014 coup in Ukraine and gave a green-light for Ukraine to attack its Eastern provinces.
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About the Author
Russell Bentley is a quondam Texan who holds passports from Russia, the Usa and the Donetsk People'southward Republic.
Russell came to Donbass in 2014 and served in the VOSTOK Battalion and XAH Spetsnaz Battalion through 2015.
He and so transitioned into the Information War, as a writer and video reporter, countering Western propaganda virtually the situation in Ukraine and Donbass.
He currently works as an accredited war correspondent in the DPR, is married and lives in a small business firm with a big garden, v Km from the frontline in the ongoing Donbass State of war.
Russell can exist reached at: russellbbentley@gmail.com.
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Source: https://covertactionmagazine.com/2021/11/12/is-biden-looking-to-reignite-a-dirty-war-in-ukraine-recent-visit-by-u-s-defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-raises-concerns/
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